Is Peyton Manning now a first round pick?
*This was spurred by a Reddit thread about Fantasy Football*
No. Thanks for asking! Drafting P. Manning in the first round is crazy. Since several quarterbacks throw it all over the place all the time, why would you burn your first round pick when there are much more important needs to fill?
Lets address the issue of a 40 TD season, and one happening for Manning. Since the 2008 season, it has happened 4 times, all of which occurred in 2011 and 2012. Twice by Brees, once by Stafford (or as I prefer to call him, Staffinfection) and once by Rodgers.
No one over the age of 35 has ever done it (P. Manning is 36). In fact, Brees is the only person over the age of 30 to do it. 3 out of the last four times its been done was by a QB who threw over 650 times. Rodger threw just a little over 500 times in 2011, when he set the world on fire.
According to my research, which I don’t claim to be infallible, throwing over 40 TDs has happened 9 times. 7 out of those 9 were by a quarterback who plays their home games either in a dome, or in warm weather (Marino twice). Only two people have done it while playing most of their games outdoors in colder weather, Brady and Rodgers. Both during years they were on fire (68% completion percentage).
Over his career, P. Manning has average 589 attempts. Like I said, 3 of the last 4 times its been done by QBs who averaged 650+ attempts. Is it possible Manning throws more next year? Sure, but is it likely? No, I don’t see how it could be.
Now, you might say, “well, Manning had 37 TDs last year, which is almost 40”. Yup. You’re right. But, over the course of his entire career, which, remember, was played indoors a lot of the time, he has averaged 31 TDs per season. If you look at his career, he most often has thrown in the high 20’s or low 30s range of TDs. 2004 with 49 TDs is an island. The year before he had 29, the year after he had 28. Even last year is something of an island.
So, is it POSSIBLE that he throws for 40+? Sure. He’s Manning. But is it likely? No, it is not. He’s much older, he plays outdoors in cold weather, and historically he has thrown for much less, even recently. So yea, he could throw for 40+, but he could also just as easily throw for 27. And by the way, I’m not saying he’s bad. Throwing for 27 TDs would not mean he’s bad, and it wouldn’t mean the Broncos are having a bad season.
Now, what about the other aspect, the aspect of drafting a QB in the first round? Well, lets look at how valuable this is… According to ESPN scoring, P. Manning was the 5th best QB for fantasy purposes. 5th best, with 309 points. Now, the 8th best QB was Tony Romo. This means P. Manning had 19.3 points per game and Tony Romo had 16.9 points per game. Thats not even a 3 point difference. And yet, according to my information, which could be flawed, fromhttp://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2012&teams=12&pos=qb
Tony Romo is going in the …. 7th round. Seems to me a guy like Tony Romo is a much, much, much better value. Tony Romo, when he plays 16 game seasons, has tended to throw in the high 20s, low 30s… just like Peyton Manning. Romo plays in a dome. Romo is young. Romo threw almost 650 times last year. He is just as likely to throw for 40+ as Manning. And I say that as someone who… hate’s Romo.
A lot of QBs throw all over the place. Several throw for 4000 plus yards. There is no reason, none, to pick Peyton Manning in the first round. Much, much better values late.